Have you ever delved into the fascinating world of population forecasts?
I’ve been doing just that, specifically, for Victoria’s Local Government Areas (LGAs) over the next 5, 10, and 15 years – analysing and projecting, attempting to decipher what the future holds for us here in Victoria.
These official projections by our state government aren’t just idle speculations. They’re the bedrock of policy decisions, shaping government investments in LGAs and fuelling private investment and developer activity.
This is a cycle that propels our local economy forward, driving gentrification and local government investment into infrastructure and amenities. But, let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Population growth is an indicator of suburban development, yet it doesn’t operate in a vacuum. It’s part of a complex web, intertwined with myriad factors that investors need to consider. Which suburb to invest in isn’t a decision made on population growth alone.
Now, who doesn’t love a good spreadsheet?
Download the PDF by clicking this link
But there’s more to real estate than numbers. As my mentor’s mentor, the astute Stu Silver says,
“As goes jobs, so does real estate.”
Employment trends, supply and demand dynamics, and the stage of growth – these elements and much more are crucial in understanding the real estate market. Despite these projections coming from the state government, they’re not infallible. No one can predict the future with absolute certainty. And while these figures are significant, they shouldn’t be the sole driver of your investment decisions.
Let’s talk numbers: In the next five years, 17 of Victoria’s 80 LGAs are projected to see double-digit growth. Fascinating, isn’t it? But it’s essential to note that some may be nearing their peak. After all, there is only so much land left in some of these land-locked LGA’s. Looking a decade ahead, 41 LGAs are tipped for similar growth. This is partly due to their lower starting points, a critical factor to remember.
The further we try to predict, the more uncertain things become. And remember, an LGA’s performance doesn’t always mirror the individual suburbs and streets within, each with their own unique market rhythms. Markets within markets.
Here’s the takeaway: Use this data wisely. It’s a piece of the puzzle, not the whole picture. Successful investing demands a sophisticated approach and an unwavering commitment to thorough, trusted due diligence.
